Daily Exchange Rate Forecasts

Daily Insight Category

Encouragingly, the Australian unemployment rate showed a surprise dip from 5.5% to 5.4% in October. This offered the Australian Dollar a boost, although the positive impact of the data was somewhat muted. As this was coupled with a decline in the participation rate the data did not paint the most optimistic picture of the domestic [...]

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The mood towards the ‘Aussie’ soured sharply on Wednesday as the third quarter wage price index failed to pick up as forecast. Wage growth instead held steady at 0.5% on the quarter, undermining confidence in the health of the domestic economy. A contraction in the Westpac consumer confidence index also eroded the appeal of the [...]

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Date: November 15th, 2017.

A surprise uptick in the NAB business confidence index boosted the ‘Aussie’, particularly as the ANZ Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index also strengthened. This painted a more optimistic picture of the domestic outlook, even though this is unlikely to be enough to alter the policy stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While [...]

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Sterling Slumps Under Growing Tory Dissent

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Date: November 14th, 2017.

Lingering disappointment over the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) downgraded forecasts kept the ‘Aussie’ under pressure on Monday. As September’s credit card purchases figure showed a modest dip on the month this gave investors further reason to sell out of the antipodean currency, suggesting that consumer confidence is weakening. Market risk appetite also generally diminished [...]

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RBA Cuts Forecasts to Prompt AUD Slump

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Date: November 13th, 2017.

Markets were not impressed by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to lower its economic forecasts in its latest Statement on Monetary Policy. The central bank took a rather less optimistic view of the domestic outlook, suggesting that inflation is likely to remain short of target for some time to come. This dovish release [...]

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‘Kiwi’ Rallies After More Upbeat RBNZ Meeting

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Date: November 10th, 2017.

September’s home loans data fell significantly short of forecast to deliver a contraction of -2.3% on the month. This weakening of the Australian housing market put renewed pressure on the ‘Aussie’, especially as investment lending was also found to have fallen sharply in the same period. Altogether this points towards diminishing confidence within the domestic [...]

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Even though the latest raft of Chinese trade data fell short of forecasts the mood towards the Australian Dollar improved on Wednesday. While Chinese imports dipped further than expected in October the economy’s appetite for commodities remains high all the same, keeping base metal prices on a stronger footing. This offered support to the ‘Aussie’, [...]

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As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to leave interest rates on hold once again the ‘Aussie’ came under fresh pressure. Markets were not encouraged by the persistent dovishness of the accompanying statement, which points towards monetary policy remaining unchanged for some time to come. With the ANZ weekly consumer confidence index also weakening [...]

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A modest uptick in the TD Securities inflation estimate for October encouraged the ‘Aussie’ to make renewed gains at the start of the week. As the figure picked up from 2.5% to 2.6% on the year this suggests that inflationary pressure within the domestic economy is still building. While this is unlikely to be enough [...]

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Stagnant Retail Sales Pushed AUD Rates Lower

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Date: November 6th, 2017.

While the latest services PMI remained in growth territory, in spite of a modest softening, this failed to support the ‘Aussie’ ahead of the weekend. Investors were rather more concerned by an unexpected stagnation in September’s retail sales data, following on from the previous month’s contraction. This suggests that consumer confidence is rather weaker than [...]

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